Dan Wheeler $14. Other bids: $13, $4, $2, $2, $1.
The low bids are probably too low here and the high bids are probably a touch too high. My guess is that even if the Devil Rays don't move Al Reyes between now and 2008, that Wheeler still might get a clean shot at the closer's role in Spring Training. The downside of Wheeler is that he's moving to the superior hitter's league and I could see him being more of a mediocre closing option than a great one. Still, for a non-contending team, $14 isn't a bad bid. There should have been more $10 bids from non-contenders, since that's the price Wheeler automatically would have jumped to if purchased for less than $10.
Danny Richar $6
Obviously, the White Sox are talking this guy up like he's going to be the starting second baseman next year. That's nice, but Richar really isn't that much of a prospect. He's got a 20 HR season on his resume at A-ball, but I think the best case scenario for Richar is a Tony Graffanino-type: a guy who hits .270 with 10 HR/10 SB and provides decent value if you spend $3-5 for him toward the back of the auction. As a $10 freeze next year, I'd say no, and I'm not convinced at all that Richar is going to be the White Sox starting 2B on Opening Day 2008.
Brian Buscher $3
I can't blame Twins fans for being excited about the fact that the team is finally giving up on Nick Punto, but Buscher doesn't look like a better alternative at all. After a few uninspiring minor league seasons, he was finally hitting for average in the minors, but with little power and at the very advanced age of 26. He might be better than Punto, but he's similar to Richar: a player who might be a useful major leaguer, but whose Roto value is limited.
Chad Bradford $3. Other bids $2, $1, $1.
My league (including me, with my $1 bid) was pretty bearish on Bradford, since Rotoworld keeps reporting that Danys Baez will close after he gets over his case of the sniffles and Jamie Walker will be the back-up when the opposition is heavy on lefties. I think my league goofed and Bradford is worthy of a higher bid (I bid $1 due to severe salary cap issues). He's not a traditional, hard-throwing closer, but his ground out approach has served him well throughout his career and he could wind up claiming the job from Baez, who has pitched terribly this year. Hoey and Doyne might be the future, but don't look ready yet. Bid a little more aggressively than this, especially if your rules allow you to get your FAAB back if Bradford is traded out of the league.
Mike Timlin $2.
Timlin's been white-hot lately, but now he's ailing and might wind up on the DL. His peripherals also don't support the ERA/WHIP, and he's not getting a lot of chances at saves or wins, with Okajima ahead of him. This is an OK bid for a back of the staff guy, but don't expect much more than that, despite what recent performance might tell you.
Kiko Calero $1
It seems like a lost year for Calero, Huston Street is back, and Alan Embree and Santiago Casilla are ahead of Calero on the depth chart for saves. I'd avoid him.
Gavin Floyd $1
As much as I make fun of Philadelphia fans for the local (and mostly negative) bias, I have to admit that I'm on the "Floyd sucks" bandwagon myself. Nothing in his major league history indicates that he's going to be successful, and I'd avoid him as a contender, and I don't think he's going to be worth a $10 stab as a freeze in 2008. He might get an opportunity if the White Sox move Jon Garland or Javier Vazquez. To be fair, Floyd's Triple-A numbers are solid this year and he is only 24 years old. Lots of pitchers with poorer pedigrees have fallen on their asses for a few years before finally putting it all together at the age of 24 or 25. Still, Floyd is a poor bet right now.
Ehren Wasserman $1
He's a 26-year old middle reliever for the White Sox who isn't a prospect, if you're wondering. He gets the bid because someone in my league is out of the running and is a friend-of-a-friend. That's kind of a cool reason to own someone if you're out of it, so I'll leave him to it.
Joe Kennedy. Claimed by 11th place and 5th place teams
Kennedy has really been awful this year, and might be out of baseball in a couple of years. A's fans over at Athletics Nation say that Kennedy has nothing left in the tank. The organization still inexplicably has hope for Kennedy, but I wouldn't take the risk right now.
Jose Molina. Claimed by 3rd place team.
As Jorge Posada's back-up, Molina won't play much unless the Yankees are eliminated early. Even if he does play, Molina is a practically worthless Roto asset. This move was made as an injury replacement, but sometimes you're better off just letting a dead spot at catcher or middle infield ride.
George Sherrill. Claimed by 1st place team.
A large part of the Mariners success has come due to their deep bullpen. Sherrill's been part of that. Eric O'Flaherty has been vulturing most of the wins, but Sherrill is good for the odd win here and there. I own both of them, and admit that my strategy here is that I win out on the odd chance Putz gets hurt. If he doesn't, it doesn't hurt having two relievers on a good team with a poor rotation.
4 comments:
As an aside to this conversation, I had the winning $3 bid on Bradford, and, frankly, I am a bit stunned he went for that little. I think Bradford/Walker is the combination that will take the saves, and I think the harsh GB/FB split gives Braford an advantage.
I goofed by not putting a claim in on Sherril - I forgot he was available. Not because Sherril is great, but because he does get win opps with that bad rotation.
I'm a bit more bullish than you are about Richar (age 24). He's slugging over .500 in aa/aaa this year (25 doubles, 8 triples and 13 dingers) and even has a little speed (8 SBs and those triples). He managed to hit over .300, with walks (37 in 400 ABs).
Last year, Richar hit over .290 with not quite as much power (.415 slugging), but more walks (52 in 480 ABs). He looks like a viable 2007 starter, who is likely to be better than third middle infielders like Cintron or Bloomquist.
Buscher is more of a gamble, but 3B is wide open in Minnesota and his OPS this year is almost 900 in aa/aaa. Buscher walks a lot (44 bb in 362 ABs) and managed to hit for average. Again, that's potentially an upgrade over a third corner guy in deep leagues.
rodger, I definitely agree with your comments about Richar. I should have been more specific about the context. In my league (and most leagues in which I've played), Richar's salary jumps to $10 next year. I agree that as a $3-5 middle infielder that you're probably looking at a nice profit center as your third middle infielder. However, the danger is if you buy the hype and pay $10-12 for him. I don't see him earning more than $15, and he could also lose the job by June, in which case you're taking a big loss on a guy who I don't think has a lot of upside.
any thoughts on where Baez stands in the saves game in Baltimore? he's still floating around in the free agent pool in my league, but his numbers look pretty brutal.
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