- You need at least one of the players you buy in the crapshoot to turn into a bargain. I'm not talking about Mike Redmond turning your $2 investment into a $4 profit. Think J.J. Putz or Gary Matthews in 2006.
- You need to avoid injuries.
- You need to make at least one trade that works out in your favor. Two trades in your favor is better.
- You need your $35+ player or players not to fall off the face of the earth.
Today, I'm going to focus on injury risk vs. reward.
In an earlier comment, sas4 said:
My mentor told me to stay away from injured players of all calibers...that was the single best piece of advice I ever got.
Let's examine this premise.
I'm going to take all of the hitters in my American League auction pool who were purchased in 2007 who were on a major league DL in 2006 (or out for the year after September 1) and group them into categories. There were 28 players that fit this description.
Huge Bargain (earning $10+ over raw bid price): Gary Sheffield ($21), Casey Kotchman ($12), Casey Blake ($10), Ty Wigginton ($10)
Mild Bargain ($5-9 over): Brian Roberts ($25), Alexis Rios ($24), Placido Polanco ($12), Bobby Crosby ($9), Shannon Stewart ($8), Mike Sweeney ($7),
Par Performer ($4 under to $4 over): Mark Teahen ($18), Jason Varitek ($12), Wily Mo Pena ($8), Jason Kubel ($7), Reggie Sanders ($5), Doug Mientkiewicz ($4), Macier Izturis ($2),
Disappointment ($5-9 under): Hideki Matsui ($24), Robinson Cano ($20), Frank Thomas ($18), Aubrey Huff ($15), Milton Bradley ($14), Jonny Gomes ($7), Rondell White ($5), Bobby Kielty ($4)
Busts($10 under): Vernon Wells ($29), Jay Gibbons ($11).
The dollar values are not the prices paid at auction. Rather, they are the pre-inflation bid prices I used entering my auction this season. Since some of these players were freezes, comparing purchased players to frozen ones would not have been an apples-to-apples comparison. Mark Teahen's freeze price clearly would have moved him to mild bargain, which I don't think would have been representative of the perception of Teahen entering this season.
There are four huge bargains, seven mild bargains, seven par performers, eight disappointments, and two busts.
The risk taker would pooh-pooh sas4's advice. "Only 36% of these players are disappointments or worse, and only seven percent have been absolute busts. Wells still might bounce back.
The risk averse could easily counter: "The hell with that. I've only got a 40% (actually 39%) chance of a bargain here. Worse yet, there's only a one-in-seven chance (14%) that I'm going to hit the jackpot with one of these guys."
Truthfully, both arguments can be seen as salient. As a result, I'd have to say that this type of review is inconclusive. A bigger conundrum is that, while only six of 28 (21.4%) of these players have been on the DL so far this year, that number could very well be higher at the end of the season. Another problem with this method is that using these dollar brackets isn't satisfying. Getting $30+ of value out of Roberts and Rios is a slam dunk in my mind, while getting nothing out of White and Gomes is a bust, not a "disappointment".
Remind me to revisit this list at the end of the season.
2 comments:
Mike: I think the analysis has to go further. The type of injury is critical. I would rather deal with a broken bone or a hang nail that healed over the off-season than a nagging back injury that might not land the player on the DL (or does - Sweeney, Crede) but effects performance.
The other thing is mechanics. I am not sure Dibble spent much time on the DL befroe he imploded.
We have to be careful, though...a study like the one you're suggesting will most likely have conclusions built in. Most people (myself included) remember chronic injuries when a player fails, but few remember players suffering through long-term maladies when those players succeed.
I would need some sort of methodology that would allow me to proceed without running the risk of merely confirming something based on rumor and innuendo. If there is an injury list somewhere of day-to-day players in previous seasons that you can direct me toward, I'd be glad to examine this further.
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