A.L. FAAB Log - June 11, 2007

Roger Clemens $80. Other bids $64, $51, $49, $40, $25, $20, $15.
I plan on writing about the mechanics of this bidding process in a separate post later on. As far as Clemens goes, I think you have to break the bank if you need the pitching. As I've said twice before this year, no FAAB pitcher has the potential to carry you to the promised land than Clemens. He's not going to be automatic, but what pitcher is?

Joey Gathright $25. Other bids $21, $17, $14, $10, $6, $2
I would have bid $15, but a pair of last second trades (to replace Milton Bradley, Joe Crede and Mark Teixeira) filled up my offense again. Gathright went to a team that just picked up Orlando Cabrera and is 11th in SB. Additionally, this team is still playing for this year but dropped all the way to 10th place, so he should definitely do what he can now to win. This drops this owner all the way to $37, but I agree with this aggressive bid. I suspect this owner will pack it in in about 2-3 weeks if things don't start turning around, so might as well make this move now. You can always dump Gathright later. If he doesn't work out, it's not going to make much of a difference anyway.

Generally speaking, I also agree with the aggressive bids here. Speed is a little easier to come by than pitching, but it's harder to find a guy as fast as Gathright with as much of a window to win a starting job. He could fail, but the positives are too large to ignore.

Santiago Casilla $12. Other bids $11, $6, $2
OK, this one I don't get. Casilla has retired 21 of the 24 batters he's faced so far this year. You can't get sucked into small sample sizes, though, and this particular sample is miniscule. The top two bids were also made by teams playing for 2008, and that makes this move particularly baffling. Huston Street is locked into the role for a long time. Casilla won't be a $12 freeze in 2008.

Josh Towers $1. Other bid $1
Almost every other bid that follows comes from a team playing for 2008. In that context, Towers isn't horrible as roster filler and as an effort to make innings. Our minor league draft picks go from 5th place down to 12th, and then 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 1st. Trying to finish out of the basement can move you up one or two precious slots and possibly get you a better minor leaguer next year. On his own merits, I don't like Towers any more than when I wrote about him earlier this year. He's a puffball pitcher who doesn't have a groundball pitch to keep the ERA down at an acceptable level. Pass if you're contending, even though Towers gets two starts this week against the slumping Giants and the weak Nationals.

Jason Tyner $1. Other bid $1
He's currently getting AB over Lew Ford, but it's hard to recommend a guy with a 634 OPS who doesn't run anymore. In 380 AB with the Twins since 2005, Tyner has nine stolen bases.

Miguel Cairo $1. Other bid $1
On the other hand, Cairo is a fine short-term replacement so long as Joe Torre doesn't trust Josh Phelps on defense and the Yanks refuse to call up Andy Phillips. Don't expect another three steals out of Cairo this week (or another 24 AB), but it looks like Torre will use Cairo a little more and Cairo does run quite a bit when he plays. I think Chris Basak is simply on the bench to distract the press with his inspirational story.

Kurt Suzuki $1. Other bids $1, $1
This is an example of where my "bid $2 if you really want the guy" rule applies. In fact, the same team bid $1 on Towers, Tyner, Cairo and Suzuki and lost. Anyway, I'm not a huge Suzuki fan. His skills translate much more behind the plate than when he's standing at it. He hasn't shown much power in the minors, and I'm guessing the MLE of his minor league numbers translates to a .240-.250 average with 5-7 HR. He might get a little more time than Adam Melhuse, but he'll need to be playing every day to generate even slight value.

Vicente Padilla $1
He's been somewhat unlucky: his OPS against this year is comparable to his OPS against in 2005, when his ERA was almost a run and a half lower. But no excuses: his strikeouts are down to under five per nine innings and his hit rate is unsurprisingly higher as a result. I think he might be hiding an injury, but it doesn't matter much whether he is or not. He's simply unownable at this time.

Joel Peralta $1
Peralta's a LIMA pitcher. He won't get too many wins in Kansas City, and probably isn't in line for saves this year, but he'll plug away with good qualitatives for a while. He's a safe ninth pitcher, or at least safe as pitchers go.

Joaquin Benoit $1
Also a LIMA pitcher, Benoit is a little less safe than Peralta due to the venue, but probably has a better chance at becoming a vulture if Texas reverts to form and starts playing like the 75-80 win team they are. Don't look for saves here, either, unless Otsuka gets traded or gets hurt. For me, this move was more about nuking Kyle Farnsworth, and Clemens and Casilla were both taken.

Lew Ford. Claimed by 12th place team
I quickly jettisoned Ford after it was apparent he wouldn't play. He was claimed by the same team that claimed Tyner, but this isn't a play you want to make if you're contending or if you're rebuilding. Who's going to want to clog up two spots with what doesn't even amount to a full major leaguer?

Cliff Lee. Claimed by 8th place team
Lee was drafted at $10, much to the joy of the winning bidder, who was very excited about this injury bargain. Last week, joy turned to sorrow, as his owner had to waive adieu. Lee and Padilla were claimed by the same team, so these moves fall into the realm of a non-contender trying to catch lightning in a bottle and move up in the standings for a better draft pick. As far as Lee goes, he's certainly been awful this year, but he only had one solid year in three from 2004-2006. He's a flyball pitcher who doesn't whiff a lot of guys, so he's always going to live on the razor's edge. I think he'll bounce back to respectability, and is a good play for wins with Cleveland's lineup offering lots of support, but I wouldn't expect better than his 2006 numbers from here on out. His 5.12 K/9 IP is more than a little alarming. Even with all those negatives, I'm still more than a little surprised that a mid-level contender didn't roll the dice here.

Aaron Fultz. Claimed by 6th place team.
He's been stuck on three wins for a while, proving that vultures are impossible to predict. He doesn't pitch enough to offer much more value than as a vulture. There are better middle relief options available.