The Trading Blues Part II - The Concept of Surplus

My old leaguemate Brett commented about how difficult it is to trade in his league. His lament, included in yesterday's post, is worth posting again. This time, I'm going to break it into two halves and analyze each part of Brett's lament.

Other things that I think your readers might find interesting are comments on trading - for example, it's very rare to have so much of a surplus in a category that it's a no-brainer to trade it for something else. So given that basically every "one category for another" trade is going to both hurt and help you, how do you decide if it's worth it?

It is rare but not entirely impossible to have a surplus in a category. However, I've noticed that, even when an owner has a surplus in a category, that he still sometimes will not move that surplus. Sometimes this is because the surplus is tied to another category. For example, if an owner has a significant surplus in wins, it is typically because he's carrying seven or eight starters, a rarity in 4x4 formats. However, those seven or eight starters usually aren't the best seven or eight starters in the league. As a result, this team is way out in front in wins but middle of the pack in ERA/WHIP. Trading the more successful pitcher will make this owner's ERA/WHIP sink like a stone. Of course, no one wants Kris Benson, who this owner's been carrying all year as if Benson has incriminating photos of him sucking on a crack pipe. As a result, the owner won't trade his "good" wins (tied to positive ERA/WHIP) and no one is interested in his "bad" wins (tied to bad ERA/WHIP).

More commonly, however, are owners who are afraid to help their opponents out too much. I've seen teams hoard power because they didn't want to help their opponent out more than they were being helped in a trade. To me, this is illogical because if you lose zero points by trading a power hitter you don't need and you gain 6 pitching points, you're gaining six points. If your opponent happens to gain more than six points, that shouldn't concern you.

I don't think surplus trades are as rare as Brett believes they are. In theory, all eight categories should have a surplus, thus creating eight separate surplus opportunities. Yes, some categories wind up being so tight that the "surplus" is a mere 3-4 HR. But this brings me to the concept of managing each category so that you can monitor surpluses in the middle and even the bottom of the category.

Saves is the most obvious category where a surplus can exist, and not necessarily at the top of the category. Let's say that you are in a 12-team American League. Four teams own two closers, six teams own one closer and the remaining two teams do not own a closer. You are one of the six teams with one closer. On May 15, you are in 9th place in the category with 10 saves. You will lose one point if you trade your closer. The team right behind you in saves will jump up five points if you trade him your closer. You should seriously consider dumping saves and gaining points elsewhere. You're not truly dumping saves, just maximizing your point total and conceding that you will not gain ground in the category.

An intriguing paradox of dump leagues is that an experienced owner can actually take advantage of future surpluses by anticipating the fact that about half of his league will pack it in at some point during the season. As a result, a weak power hitting team can finish with six or seven points in HR and RBI simply by standing pat. However, a team with slightly more power who times the dump trades well can trade some of his power, lose only a couple of points and add help elsewhere.

Maximizing your point totals can be done in dump leagues. "Surpluses" don't simply exist at the top of a category but throughout the category. The key is identifying these surpluses as the season goes along and taking advantage of your opportunities as they arise.

The biggest mistake an owner can make is to play an eight-category game to the hilt. Ninety-six points (the maximum number in a 4x4, 12 team league) typically doesn't win the league, 75-80 is a more realistic number. This means that you can try to win seven categories and tank one. Or try to finish strong in six categories and finish in the middle of the pack in two.

Don't get caught thinking that you can't trade. Figuring out a league dynamic in this regard is challenging, but you must do it, especially because non-dump trades are another way to strengthen your team, and can augment a good dumping strategy.