Rodger's Dilemma

Based on Rodger's request, I started writing about minor leaguers coming to the majors this year and where their FAAB bids might fall in.

As I keep repeating over and over, in most leagues these players are drafted in a reserve or minor league draft. But since rodger reminded me of who some of these guys are, I thought I'd take a look at my A.L.'s minor league draft and compare it to Rodger's FAAB bids from last year.

Last year in FAAB, people in my 12 team AL bought: BJ Upton for $51, Kendry Morales for $32, Jason Botts $26, Dallas McPherson $26, Andy Marte $16, Howie Kendrick $15, Shin Soo-Choo $15, Ryan Shealy $14, and Justin Huber $12.

Of all of those hitters, only Botts ($23) and Shealy ($15) were available as free agents in my league. All of the other players on that list were drafted as farm players.

The 2006 FAAB pitchers: Jered Weaver $36, Jeremy Sowers $16, Joe Saunders $14, Matt Garza $13, Jon Lester $10, and Boof Bonser $9.

Now we're talking. Only Weaver and Lester were acquired through the farm draft in my league. Sowers ($25), Saunders ($26), Garza ($15), and Bonser ($17) were all more expensive FAAB buys than in Rodger's league.

Part of the reason that hitters are favored over pitchers in leagues with farm drafts is that hitters are generally a safer investment for the long term. Between injuries, short-term ineffectiveness and a more unpredictable rate of development, rookie pitchers have a big payoff (like Weaver) but can also flame out on you in a big way (like Garza or Saunders).

Even Rodger's FAAB bids seem to intuitively understand this. In a league where there is no minor league draft, the smart money is on hitting. Because we all know that rookie pitchers have a very broad range of expectations and sometimes can blow up our staffs.

Since the subject of FAAB keeps coming up, I'm going to dig a little deeper in the near future and examine some of the more expensive bids and the rationale behind them.

To answer your question about Billy Butler, rodger, I think that in your league you'll probably have to go $40 for him. It's a huge risk, as he might wind up in Triple A in two weeks time. Unlike Brandon Wood, though, I think the Royals wouldn't have brought Butler up if they weren't seriously considering carrying him on the roster long-term.