Monday, May 07, 2007

A.L. FAAB Log 5/7/07

Chris Snelling $11. Other bids $4, $3, $1, $1, $1
I have to admit that I've always liked Snelling. My bid was only $1 because I currently have 28.5 points on offense despite the fact the almost everyone is underperfoming and because I'm not exactly sure what Snelling's long-term role in Oakland will be. Milton Bradley should be back at some point from his 18,764th injury and that would put both Snelling and Jack Cust on the bench. However, it is possible that the A's will send Travis Buck down to Triple-A due to his 24 whiffs in 76 AB thus opening up a spot long-term for Snelling (though Buck's OBP and OPS is solid, and the A's probably know this).

In the short-term, this is a good buy. Despite Rotoworld's thumbs down, Snelling is the kind of player who will do a great job of moving the chains: hitting the occassional HR, stealing the odd base, and driving in a bunch of runs. It doesn't help that he's on the A's, who have such a terrible bottom of the line-up right now, but I still think Snelling can be productive.

$11 might have been too much, but in the context of my league, I like the bid. The owner who bought him was my pre-season favorite and has been floundering, and needed to take some chances to stay afloat. He also bought Jack Cust at $3, who I'll talk about below.

Chad Durbin $4
With Andrew Miller pitching erratically in Triple A, Durbin has a little bit of job security as the Tigers #5 starter. Still, there's not much to like in the numbers. Two good starts in six does little to recommend him, particularly since one was against the disturbingly slumping ChiSox offense and another against the Royals. It seems that Durbin would be better off in Tampa's rotation: he'd fit right in with Casey Fossum and Jae Weong Seo and all the other non-Kazmir/Shields starters they're throwing out there. I wouldn't even bid $1.

Jack Cust $3. Other bids $3, $2, $2, $1, $1
I'm surprised that Cust didn't get more play, but I think enough people in the A.L. have owned him or been teased by his potential. He has the same problem as Snelling; I don't see where Cust plays when Bradley comes back. I also don't think Cust is as good of a baseball player. He might do more for us in Roto, but that doesn't mean that he has the skills Snelling has on the field. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cust not play all that much, though his potential for a HR streak can't be ignored.

As I mentioned above, the owner who bought Snelling also bought Cust. A combined $14 might seem like a lot to pay for these two, but I would argue that circumstance makes this a good move. If you're struggling early, it's not a bad play to try and catch lightening in a bottle. If it doesn't work, you dump and play for 2008 anyway. If it does work, you're back in the race. That FAAB is worthless in July if you're mired in the second division.

Victor Diaz $1. Other bid $1
I broke my cardinal rule about bidding $2 if you really want a player. Diaz was my first choice over Snelling or Cust but I thought I'd get one of them (probably Diaz) for $1.

At 25 years old, Diaz certainly isn't going to suddenly improve. He was off to a fast start in the minors, but his low walk rate and sudden penchant for singles doesn't really translate to Roto. On the other hand, Nelson Cruz seems to be on the way out with his awful start and Diaz might get a real chance to show the Rangers if he's worth playing on a regular basis. At the very least, Diaz is a good short-term flier at $1.

Franklin Gutierrez $1
Gutierrez is one of the hair shirts an owner gets to wear for not bidding enough on Snelling/Cust. At 24, he's getting old for a prospect, especially one who hasn't found his power stroke yet in Triple A. He's buried far behind the Indians current starting rotation in the OF, and is better as a long-term move if you can bury him on a reserve list.

Dustin McGowan $1
He was awesome in five starts for Syracuse this year (22 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 29 K) and then got lit up in his first 2007 major league start. I've always liked McGowan, but he's never quite been the same since he had Tommy John surgery. 25 isn't old in baseball age for a pitcher, but I suspect he won't get too many more changes. A decent gamble, but only if your staff is struggling to begin with.

Julian Tavarez $1
A solid outing against a punchless Twins line-up apparently earned Tavarez a $1 bid. He's an adequate major league starter, and he should get his share of wins on the BoSox, but you probably only want to use him in spots if your league allows it. Jon Lester will probably replace Tavarez within a month's time.

Jaime Burke $1
You have to feel for Mike Piazza owners this week. Last week, stalwarts like the legendary Sal Fasano and the inimitable Josh Paul were just sitting in the free agent pool, waiting for an owner to bring them home to be loved.

OK, that's a little much. But Fasano and Paul were actually halfway passable options at catcher. This week, with Piazza on the shelf, the position is pretty much bone dry in our league. Burke probably is the best option, but I would also have understood if Piazza's owner had just carried zeroes for awhile. It's pathetic when you're waiting for the Angels to call up faded prospect Jeff Mathis.

Josh Rabe $1
And here is the other hair shirt from the Snelling/Cust derby. Actually, this might be a pretty savvy bid. With Mauer on the DL and Redmond expected to catch full-time, Rabe should get a fair amount of AB in leftfield and at DH. Of course, all bets are off if Ron Gardenhire's man love for Luis Rodriguez gets in the way and he continues to insist on giving Rodriguez 15+ AB a week. A bigger problem, of course, is that arguing for Rabe over Rodriguez is like arguing for a poke in the eye over a punch in the mouth. Rabe's not even a Quad-A OF; in fact, his numbers in Triple A the last few years are questionable as well.

Glen Perkins - Claimed by 10th, 7th, 5th and 2nd place teams.
I like Perkins's minor league numbers, but the Twins don't seem to regard him as highly as Matt Garza or Kevin Slowey, so Perkins is up in the majors pitching in long relief. He needs a trade, since Perkins should be starting over Sidney Ponson now if the Twins insist on leaving him on the major league roster.

Wil Ledezma - Claimed by 7th place team
Since the last time I wrote about Ledezma, he's been terrible, walking 8 batters in 9 innings and throwing up a WHIP over 2. His shot to replace Durbin in the rotation - if it ever existed - is probably gone.

Kameron Loe - Claimed by 5th place team
Since I wrote about Loe last, he's had two horrible outings and one great outing. Since the great outing was his most recent, Loe naturally was claimed.

Sean Henn - Claimed by 2nd place team
Ah, the excitement of writing about marginal players like this twice within three weeks! The only thing notable about Henn is that Torre's used him as a true lefty specialist his last three outings, which limits Henn's ability at wins but is also a waste of roster space, with both Henn and Mike Myers filling the role.

Scott Proctor - Claimed by 1st place team
Proctor emerged as a quality reliever last year, though his HR/IP rate most likely disallows Torre from giving him a shot at saves if Mariano gets hurt. Proctor's K/IP are way down so far this year, making me wonder if the 102 1/3 relief innings he put up last year aren't part of the problem.

There were no rookies called up this week worth writing about. I'll talk about Tim Lincecum and other N.L. callups in my next post.

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