Thursday, April 19, 2007

Trading the present for the future will help you win in the present

The header sounds a lot like a Zen koan for Rotisserie, but there are rare cases where you can do this in carry-over leagues. In fact, there are times when you should give up a little value now for a moderate amount of value later.

Let's say you own Manny Ramirez at $38. He's off to a slow start, but you figure he's going to still put up strong numbers this year. Someone e-mails you and offers Howie Kendrick at $10 and John Danks at $4. Do you do it?

Without salaries to consider, I'd be pretty insulted. Even if Manny slips somewhat this year (which I believe he will), you're still looking at a 30/100/.300 hitter. That's not easy to replace. Even pre-injury, Kendrick is more of a real player than Roto player, and a 15/15 line probably would have been a stretch for him. Danks is off to a nice start, but he's probably going to have his rough days in Chicago.

However, in a carry-over league, this trade might make a lot of sense.

Flash forward to mid-June. Trading Manny hurt your power somewhat, but you're still hanging in the top three in HR and RBI. Your team is in 3rd place. Suddenly, three teams have decided to pack it in. All three teams are interested in Kendrick and one of them is sniffing around about Danks.

Now a lot of the merits of what I'm talking about depend on your league's dump culture. I'll talk about this in length as the summer gets closer and the haves and the have nots begin to emerge. However, for this trade to make sense:
  • non-contenders in your league must be interested in building around young players. I don't just mean the obvious ones like Delmon Young and Matt Cain, but less obvious guys like Kendrick and Danks.
  • teams must typically deal 2:1. There are some leagues where a cheap Kendrick for an expensive David Ortiz straight up is considered a fair deal. In every league I've been in, that deal would be considered a steal...for the guy who got Kendrick, since some other owner will pay more for a similarly cheap player with future upside.

The other obvious factor is where you are categorically. You have to have enough power to move for this deal to make sense; trading Manny in late April so you can get more power in late June doesn't make sense unless you can take the hit now and not dig yourself too big of a hole.

Personally, I wouldn't make the deal I outlined because Kendrick is hurt. With a healthy Kendrick, though, I might just pull the trigger, knowing that I can get more for Kendrick later on.

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