I was wrong.
Not only was I wrong, I was so wrong that I should hire a skywriter to write those words over the Philadelphia sky. Not a single catcher went over his inflation price. Only two second basemen went over their inflation price, but only Aaron Hill's $15 salary seemed way out of line to me. On the whole, the league was more or less in line with nearly every "scarce" player.
As always after an auction, I always like to ask "why?" Learning from my auctions - even my good ones - keeps me from getting complacent and simply running the same strategies and tactics out there year in and year out.
Why was there little to no position scarcity?
Another way to look at this question is, "when did the room overpay and for whom?"
Players –3 or More “Par” Value
| Round/Slot | Player | Position | Proj Price | Actual Price | +/- |
| 1:1 | Joe Nathan | RP | $39 | $45 | -6 |
| 1:5 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | SP | $30 | $40 | -10 |
| 1:8 | Ben Zobrist | SS | $2 | $7 | -5 |
| 1:12 | Kelvim Escobar | SP | $19 | $22 | -3 |
| 2:14 | Aubrey Huff | 1B/3B/OF | $19 | $23 | -4 |
| 2:24 | Rich Harden | SP | $18 | $25 | -7 |
| 3:26 | Eric Gagne | RP | $11 | $18 | -7 |
| 3:36 | Javier Vazquez | SP | $12 | $16 | -4 |
| 4:41 | Hank Blalock | 3B | $17 | $23 | -6 |
| 4:45 | Troy Glaus | 3B | $20 | $25 | -5 |
| 4:47 | Jeremy Sowers | SP | $12 | $18 | -6 |
| 4:48 | Francisco Liriano | SP | $9 | $14 | +-5 |
| 5:52 | Michael Young | SS | $30 | $33 | -3 |
| 5:55 | Aaron Hill | 2B/SS | $11 | $15 | -4 |
| 5:56 | Kei Igawa | SP | $8 | $15 | -7 |
| 6:61 | Gil Meche | SP | $6 | $11 | -5 |
| 6:63 | Adam Loewen | SP | $4 | $7 | -3 |
| 6:67 | Fernando Cabrera | RP | $1 | $4 | -3 |
| 6:71 | Akinori Iwamura | 3B | $8 | $15 | -7 |
| 6:72 | Yuniesky Betancourt | SS | $9 | $13 | -4 |
| 7:73 | Elijiah Dukes | OF | $5 | $9 | -4 |
| 8:85 | Jon Lester | SP | $1 | $5 | -4 |
| 8:87 | Rafael Betancourt | RP | $2 | $7 | -5 |
| 9:99 | Erick Aybar | SS | $2 | $7 | -5 |
| 9:107 | Ryan Garko | 1B | $7 | $11 | -4 |
| 11:122 | Robinson Tejeda | SP | $1 | $5 | -4 |
It's a long table, and it looked better in Word than it does with Blogger's awkward formatting. But, to me, it does shed some light on when owners overpaid. A total of 26 players (out of 162 drafted, or 16%) went $3 or more over my bid price. These include:
- Fifteen pitchers: 11 starters and four relievers. Every one of these pitchers reflects a personal preference by the owner drafting the pitcher more than an overpay, in my opinion. Some "overpays" are due to circumstance (Betancourt went to the owner who also drafted Joe Borowski) and others due to a team's status (Gagne went to a team not playing for this year). Yet others are simply preference (F. Cabrera is still highly regarded by some owners, if not for 2007 then definitely for 2008).
- Five corner infielders (I'll include Huff at corner). Huff ($23), Blalock ($22) and Glaus ($25) look like pure overpays to me, especially given some of the bargains that fell in at the position later (Joe Crede $14, Brandon Inge $10, Mike Lowell $8). Sports Weekly had Blalock rated pretty highly, but given that he only earned $14 last year, that price looks like wishcasting. Glaus is a great two-category guy, but that's all he is, and the position is thick. Huff is eligible at 1B/3B/OF, but that's still a lot.
- The other 3B corners - Iwamura and Garko - were bought by rebuilding teams. Garko could have been frozen at $10, but the owner gets a year on the contract. I still think these guys are too pricey, but can see in the rationale Garko's case .
- Five middle infielders. All overpays, none going to a rebuiliding team except Zobrist. I called Zobrist out, thinking I'd suck $10-12 out of the room as it chased his two steals. Notice it isn't until the 5th round that the next overpriced middle infielder goes. Young is when owners notice that middle infield is him and a sudden drop-off. I actually bid $32 because I was still at a point where I needed to spend my money. I was also sitting next to the guy who bought Young, and heard him muttering under his breath...he might have gone $35 had I pushed him.
- Hill and Betancourt are cute Stage Two plays in a Stage Three auction, both going to the same owner. Neither one has enough upside at $15 and $13, respectively.
- Aybar was an ugly battle of two teams looking for a minor chip to dump. The guy who said $6 was happy. The guy who said $7 was pissed (though he was at the point where he was about to leave some cash on the table).
- Dukes was the only overpriced OF. He also went to a rebuilding team. In an auction with a lot of talent, I didn't expect any overpriced OF and I was almost correct.
I don't have a good conclusion to this post. I would suggest that you cannot count on overpays coming at a certain position or a certain role based on scarcity in your player pool. By that logic, Joe Mauer should have went for $35 in my auction (something I expected) and Brian Roberts for $35 as well. This is an even more important reason to play the "plus/minus" and not to simply overpay for "scarce" positions early on.
No comments:
Post a Comment