Thursday, April 26, 2007

FAAB for Kids

In a comment yesterday, rodger asks:

Brandon Wood and Phil Hughes were called up today. Let's talk FAAB on those guys. In my league, minor leaguers are not eligible even for reserve spots until they are promoted to the big club.
That's an unusual rule, but since you're stuck with it, I'll assume other owners are too.

Let's start with Brandon Wood.

There's no doubt that he's a great prospect though, for some, the luster has gone off because of his high strikeout totals in the minors. I think that's nonsense. This is a 21-year old kid who slugged 552 in Double-A. I'd be more concerned about his walk totals. They're a little low, and there will be some deterioration in the majors. If Wood is only walking 20-30 times a year, that's going to be a problem for his overall development as a player.

All of that aside, a larger issue with Wood is that I don't see a situation where he starts over Orlando Cabrera in the long term. The best case scenario for Wood in the short term is a few starts at 2B over Erick Aybar/Macier Izturis. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Wood sent back down when Chone Figgins returns next week.

If you're bidding for this year only, my bid is $5 maximum. If you can keep him for next year, you will want to bid at least $10, and maybe higher if your league truly values rookies in dump trades.

Philip Hughes is another story. He's definitely up too early, but that doesn't mean he won't be up to stay, given the Yankees poor start, and Torre's desperation to fill a slot with someone better than Jeff Karstens, Darrel Rasner or back-to-back-to-back-to-back Chase Wright.

The key question here is how long do you believe he'll be up. If you think he'll be up all year, then I'd go $20 on him. It might seem like a radical bid, but pitchers of Hughes's caliber aren't sitting on the free agent pool in A.L. only leagues often. However, if you think that Hughes will go right back down after Mussina comes off the D.L., you'll want to lower your bid to something more reasonable, like $8. But, again, if you really want him, I think you'll need to go at least $15. Hughes is way too hyped to go for much less.

And rodger, I'll make sure to add guys like this to my FAAB analysis going forward.

6 comments:

Rodger A. Payne said...

Thanks, Mike.

Incidentally, we do allow owners to reserve players sent to the minors after they have appeared on a big league roster. Thus, I could buy Wood and keep him even if he goes back to AAA in a week or two.

Another team owner and I saw Wood hit 2 loud doubles on Sunday the 15th in Vegas. I'm guessing someone spends $15 to $20 on him for this year. My current 3B is Kata (he replaced the DLed McPherson).

Don't the Angels need power? Conceivably, Figgins could return to his utility role (OF, SS, 2B, etc.) while Wood plays 3B, where he has been playing in AAA.

Dr. Hibbert said...

there is some sentiment out there that maybe Figgins gets traded this summer, opening more space for Wood. Pure speculation?

Mike Gianella said...

Yes, the Angels line-up is a little light this year. It does seem to me, though, that Wood needs a full season at Triple-A. You have the advantage of having seen him; I only have what I see in the numbers, but I worry that he'll be a .230-.240 hitter with a lousy OBP if he's brought up too soon.

If you can keep him next year, that would certainly change your bidding mentality, depending on what price you would have him at, whether or not you're playing for this year or next year, etc.

Mike Gianella said...

tom, it's possible...Figgins rumors have been circulating for the last two years. The injury is going to make it harder to move Figgins, though, and I suspect that the Angels would prefer to keep him in a super utility role than move him unless the deal is sweet.

Toz said...

One point we've missed in the analysis is Wood's time at 3B. There is a reason Wood is up - Morales was doing nothing wrong and Figgins is a week from returning. I think Wood is up to stay at this point, playing a combination of 2B, SS and 3B. That's just my read.

Mike Gianella said...

I did indirectly address 3B when I said that Chone Figgins will be back next week, but I agree I could have been clearer.

I agree that Wood could stay up. However, it seems like it would be a mistake.