A.L. FAAB Review 4/15/07

I used to do this over at Alex's web site and people found it useful. I'll continue to do it here.

My league uses the standard FAAB rule. $100 FAAB, $1 minimum bid.

Joaqim Soria $20. Losing bids: $13, $12, $10, $6, $6, $3.
Clearly, Soria was going to be the biggest buy in leagues that hadn't claimed him yet. My $6 bid was conservative, and I knew it wouldn't get him unless the entire league fell asleep.

There's nothing wrong with taking a $20 flyer on Soria, but I wasn't convinced even before tonight'sterrible outing that Soria was necessarily going to be a long term solution in KC. There's a good chance that in Dotel's absence you're looking at a committee and not one guy. Buddy Bell has certainly made proclamations before about his team that have fallen by the wayside in short order.

Shaun Marcum $5.
With Jason Frasor already on a roster, B.J. Ryan's owner took a $5 stab at Marcum, who picked up the first save in Ryan's absence. He's off to a good start, but his M.O. says that he's a flyball pitcher in a home run park. He might pick up the odd save or two, but Frasor's the guy Gibbons trusts and Marcum won't pick up many saves unless Frasor really stumbles. Judging by the lack of other bids, it looks like Marcum could have been had for a $1.

Steve Trachsel $5. Other bid $2
Trachsel's a good example of how savvy Stage Three leagues are. He went undrafted - while lesser lights like Sid Ponson and Jorge de la Rosa went for $1 - despite the fact that he won a lot of games the last few years and with the exception of last year was generally a solid pitcher. I still think Trachsel's a poor bet for 2007, with his nice early numbers padded by an easy start vs. Kansas City. Avoid.

Carlos Pena $3. Other bid $2
A hot prospect many years ago with the Rangers, Pena seemed to be on his way to becoming a Quad-A guy before he got new life with Tampa. Pena's a solid pick in league's where you can play matchups and reserve active major leaguers. I considered picking him up this week but saw that Tampa had three lefties on tap and decided to pass. I do think Pena can provide 10-15 HR even with as little as 250-300 AB, so this bid is more than solid. Just don't dump an everyday player for him yet. Gomes is sitting and Dukes looks like he's not ready, but that doesn't mean Pena won't eventually make it back to the bench. Pena has an OPS+ over league average every year and probably would be an improvement over some major league 1B, but don't get me started on that topic.

Wil Ledezma $2. Other bid $2
Ledezma has been a fantasy tease ever since he first came to the majors. Last year he threw up a 0.84 ERA in August and excited the half of my league that was paying attention, only to follow with a 5.47 ERA in September. He's off to a good start this year and, with Chad Durbin struggling, many think Ledezma will get the call. I'd temper my expectations. Ledezma's K/IP rates are mediocre. Comerica masks some of that, but I'm still not sold on Ledezma as a big time contributor. A $2 bid is OK, but don't count on big contributions from Wil.

Sean Henn $2.
Henn's a good organizational soldier who probably shouldn't be on the Yankees. Regardless of how you feel about his inclusion on the roster, though, he's near the bottom of the pecking order for wins and saves and runs the danger of getting stuck in a mop-up outing where Torre just leaves him out there to die because Mussina, Pavano, and Methuselah are all on the DL. Henn's first good year came in Double A at age 24, and even then his minor league track record doesn't scream major league success.

Luis Rodriguez $2
I'm sure Luis Rodriguez is a wonderful human being who loves his family, donates his time to charity, and loves playing a good practical joke that leaves the whole room laughing. But he has no business on the Twins, let alone your roster. His highest minor league OPS in a full season is 746. He's getting AB, but he doesn't even run enough to make him worth your time.

David Aardsma $1/Matt Thornton $1
I grouped these two together since these were my bids. I reserved Mike Mussina this week and said a quick goodbye to Tomo Ohka. With six starters on my roster and Bartolo Colon coming back soon, I decided to say goodbye to Tomo before he pitched against Boston this week. Aardsma and Thornton I took more because Jenks has looked shaky than anything else. Aardsma, in particular, has a high K rate thus far (and did last year as well) and his kept his walks down. Macdougal will get first shot if Jenks stumbles, but don't forget Aardsma. The former first round pick may finally be in that post-hype sweet spot where even if he doesn't get any saves, he could still put up some great peripherals. Thornton I'm less excited about, but he might just be up for a week or two before Moose and Colon both come back.