Timothy responded to Sunday's post:
My fifteen-year-old league collapsed under a wave of recrimination, lies, etc. Seven of us are starting a new NL-only, 4x4, $260 league, with three new owners. Of the seven originals, 4-5 are pretty good owners, 2-3 are raw, and the three new guys are likely to be fish. We couldn't find twelve owners, so I know the guys who would have gone for $3-$7 will now go for $1. I don't think the Pujols/Reyes/Wright/Carpenter studs will deflate much, if at all. What other effects might we see?Back in 1987, when I first started playing Roto, I was in a similar league with a small number of owners. I was only in that league for four years, and my memory is hazy on what happened 17+ years ago (except for the fact that I won twice and finished second once).
What I do remember is that Timothy's assumption is correct about the stars. If anything, they might go for even more money. To review, here are the number of slots that need to be filled in Timothy's league and the number of everyday players in the National League:
Catcher - 16 N.L. starters, 14 C slots.
Corner Infield - 32 N.L. starters, 21 CO slots.
Middle Infield - 32 N.L. starters, 21 MI slots.
Outfield - 48 N.L. starters, 35 OF slots.
Even with seven utility slots to fill, this means that there will be 30 everyday players just sitting out in the free agent pool at the beginning of the season. So I would say that spending a few more bucks on Albert Pujols or Jose Reyes isn't a bad idea. A stars and scrubs team, where your worst corner infielder is someone like Nomar Garciaparra or Conor Jackson, can be quite effective in a league like this. Timothy's assumption that players at $3-7 in a full league will go for $1 is even more radical. Guys valued at $10-15 could very well be sitting in the end game at $1.
I would argue that position scarcity matters much more as well. Paying extra for Brian McCann or Chase Utley gives you an advantage that no one else will have at a position.
Downgrade closers. Everyone will get at least two, and at least two owners will get three. The downside of this is it's a much harder category to dump, the upside is that you're bound to get at least one cheap closer.
To answer the second part of Timothy's question, the other effects will be seen during the season. The free agent pool will always be robust and filled with players who get 500 AB. Active roster management will lead to more stat accumulation and a stronger team.
In theory, dump trades will be harder, since more and more players will be, in theory, undervalued. You've got a $3 Nomar? Well big deal...I have a $4 Ken Griffey Jr. However, some teams will try to play for next year and might very well be able to build a powerhouse if they do it right and if your freeze list rules are liberal. This leads right to the second part of Timothy's comment:
Also, what should we do after the season if we go to twelve teams? There's going to be a raft of bottom-feeding bargains. I suggested that EVERY player get $10 added to his salary after the season, to bring the bottom up without shooting the stud through the ceiling.I'd recommend starting over, but I know this doesn't appeal to most owners with great freezes. However, the biggest drawback to expansion is the plethora of great freezes. Many owners who would have joined my six-team league didn't because they didn't want to compete against a team with 14 or 15 kick ass freezes at rock bottom prices.
Barring a do-over, I would recommend a) reducing the number of freezes dramatically and b) having an expansion draft for the new teams. Knock the freezes down to 8 freezes if your league adds one team, and drop the number of freezes down one for each team added. A 12-team league would then have only four freezes. This might sound radical, but these will be four awesome freezes.
Let the new teams pick anyone they want who isn't protected for the expansion draft. Limit the number of protected players to the number of freezes you'll be using.
Another idea, if this doesn't appeal to you, is pushing all of the contracts forward by a year and forcing teams to either option out their players or give them contracts. It's not perfect, but it will at least make the league competitive again in 2009.
Whatever you do, I wish you good luck. Depending on the temperment of your league, it might be very difficult to convince owners to sacrifice freezes in the name of your league's survival. But then it might also be hard to convince owners to join the league if the deck is so obviously stacked against them.
6 comments:
The easiest way to handle having less than a full complement of owners is to eliminate NL teams to keep the player/owner ratio reasonable. Our league has varied from 8-10 owners over the years. We add/subtract NL teams as necessary. Owners are allowed to keep freezes from subtracted NL teams if they choose.
I think you read the question wrong and are assuming they only have 7 teams. They really have 10 teams, 7 original owners and 3 new owners.
Anonymous, you got it right. I guess I wasn't clear. But I think the advice is basically the same; it's just the effect will be a little less pronounced. I'm about to go in to bump the studs up a little bit and deflate the closers a little bit more. I hope the guys in my league aren't reading this! :)
To answer anonymous, I was assuming 7 teams. I would agree with timothy, however, that the effects will be similar.
I'd agree with brutus that subtracting N.L. teams is another solution. I did not propose it because I've never heard of it working, and there are complicated issues, such as players traded from subtracted teams, that I did not care to get into in this post.
I did read it as 10 owners, which is less than a full complement if using the entire NL.
It really isn't too complicated to manage. We add/remove specific NL teams in a prescribed manner. We treat the non-used NL teams as if they were AL teams, in terms of player availability and movement.
Mike -- great blog, I really enjoy it. I know you play 4x4, it would be interesting to discuss your various topics relative to 5x5.
thanks for the kind words, brutus.
I intend to write more about 5x5 as I go along. The CBS Sportsline expert league is 5x5, and Toz is helping a friend with a 5x5 league this year. We'll both have observations as the season goes along.
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