Friday, February 23, 2007

When you "can't" compete this year

A few posts back, Mike Fenger wrote the following comment.

I think (fear) that the year after shooting the moon, a team is going to have a hard time competing for the impact players with the better freeze-list teams, and having mid-level at-value players (frozen) and risk-heavy guys (bought at auction) is a recipe for a sixth-place finish if you're not careful.

That said, such a team is in good shape to build a good freeze list for 2008. If you come out of the auction with a team with a small chance of being in the money, you can hold up the contenders by playing them against each other for the Tejadas and Youngs.
The full comment is so insightful, that I include it here if you care to take a look.

I agree with the gist of what Mike's saying. One of the silliest things in this industry are experts who virtually promise that "you will win your league." If you play in a freeze league, there will simply be years where the odds are stacked against you. I did not intend to infer that I own the magic bullet that can change the cards you're dealt pre-auction.

However, I also don't believe in giving up on the season before the season starts. I cannot and will not promise anyone reading this blog that my advice can singlehandedly win you your league. If you're in a competitive league, you won't win every year, and you already know that.

My multiple responses to comments to my posts have been a most welcome diversion from the next task at hand. How do you take a deck that's stacked against you and better your odds? That will be the subject of my next few posts.


Herb said...

I am really glad you have started this blog. There has been an altogether shortage of this type of site. Alex's site has been good, but since the whole database thing changed, it hasn't been the same. Perhaps, and it looks like you might, you could get into some of the things Alex used to accomplish through the converations in his book. I look forward to stopping by regularly.

Mike Gianella said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tom said...

"However, I also don't believe in giving up on the season before the season starts."

This is a great point. So often I look at my own freeze list or others and think, "not a chance". Then there are teams that are stacked to the gills with great freezes. What happens? The more crafty owners find a way to creep into the money, while the loaded teams, if not careful in the draft, become also-rans. Always play for this year.

Toz said...

Tom - that is a really good point. i do think, however, there comes a year where you have to at least go into the draft thinking, "Jeez, I need to reload this year." Otherwise, you could wind up in a situation where you finish 3rd-6th every year for three years in a row, and then need to rebuild. I'd rather win. Caution, however: sometimes you load up and lose, and that hurts. I watched an owner load up his farm system for about 5 years with a couple of false starts, and it was painful for him and for us.