Monday, January 22, 2007


7 years, $85 million. Let me repeat: 7 years, $85 million. Putting this deal in context, this really is a bargain for the Phillies. A quick look at his numbers in his two full-time years (an average of 30HR, 103RBI, 15SB and a .298 average) and his age (28) next year suggest that we can expect similar numbers for the next few years. Given Utley's manner of play (reckless may be the best way to describe it), there is always concern for injury and concern for his long term potential (see his post-All Star break numbers for the last two years, where there is a considerable wear-down effect). Years 5, 6 and 7 may be a concern. Nonetheless, this is an excellent move for the Phillies. Utley will be a top 3 second baseman in fantasy for years to come, and you will pay a premium to own him.


Big Guy said...

First of all, thanks for some NL news. This is a great move for the Phils but let's talk fantasy. In a 5 x 5 league where runs is the 5th category, what's the price for Utley.

Hopefully the Phils can do right by Ryan Howard and keep him in the fold when he comes up for arbitration. If he has another terrific year, he'll be wanting "Pujols" money, and he may be entitled to it.

Toz said...

Big guy -

Pricing always depends on your league, so that is a difficult question to answer. Let me try it this way. In a 5x5 league with typical categories (runs, HR, RBI, SB, average), Chase Utley earned 1310 "fantasy points." The next closest second baseman was Dan Uggla with 980 - with Soriano in the outfield, Utley is the cream of the crop. If you use a 12 team NL league, Utley earned $52 from the 2B position (in a 13 team team league, he earned $36). Do you want to pay $52? Of course not - but you will pay premium dollars for him.

This leads into an interesting discussion of position scarcity that is applicable to draft leagues and auction leagues, and Mike and I will plan to address that in a future column.