Monday, January 08, 2007

Bargains for masochists v 1.0

Typically, when I talk about bargains on this web site, I will most likely be talking about the first two categories of players, or auction bargains. One thing that freezes do, however, is change the concept of what an auction bargain is.

If you have a player who eats up $17 of your auction and he earns $17, is he a bargain?


In start-up leagues, these issues simply don’t apply. A $17 player who earns $17 is a wash. And, if you draft a team for $260 that earns $260, you are most likely looking at a 6th or 7th place team.

However, freeze lists and inflation changes that.

Let’s take that same $17 player and assume that he’s a freeze. Suddenly, that player is a bust if he only earns what you froze him at.

How’s that?

You expect profits from your freeze list. The idea is that every team is freezing players who are undervalued. If your rival freezes $60 worth of players who earn $100 and you freeze $60 worth of players worth $80, you are $20 in the hole. While there might occasionally be a situation where you freeze a player at par, you don’t want to freeze an entire team at par. You will lose.

On the other hand, a $17 player you buy in the auction who earns $17 is a good deal.

Come again?

In an auction with 20% inflation, it will cost you $20.40 to buy $17 worth of statistics. To look at it the other way, $17 will only buy $14.17 worth of stats. If your $17 bought you a full $17 worth of stats, you made out.

If this all sounds boring and dry, it is if you look at it from the standpoint of one player. Looking at it from the standpoint of 23 players, though, you can see where the excitement comes at possibly getting $2.83 profit per player. Expand that to 10 players, and you’ll get $28.30 worth of profit. Add that to $20 worth of profit on your freeze list, and you’ll have a $308.30 team. That team will win or nearly win in a lot of competitive leagues.

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