Monday, December 18, 2006

Historical Context

Every winter when I run the numbers and assign Patton $ to them, I have what Alex used to call "wonderful sunrises". Once the season starts, I don't particularly pay close attention to what a player is earning, and it isn't until the regular season is done that I bother to look.

David Ortiz hit 54 HR, 137 RBI, .287 BA, 1 SB and earned $34. Not bad, but I thought for sure he would have earned closer to $40.

Just for fun, I plugged Ortiz into the 1993 formula. Those same numbers earned him $41.

When it comes to valuation, context matters. There are owners out there who will spend $45-50 for David Ortiz no matter what. Those owners will enjoy owning David Ortiz. But they will also lose almost every time, since they are building a double digit loss onto their teams. Unless they are committed to chucking steals over the side, they won't win this way.

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