tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post7527481893214970019..comments2023-10-31T06:25:28.512-04:00Comments on Roto Think Tank: 2009 CBS Sportsline NL Expert AuctionMike Gianellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04227146501538593197noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-45137588148134860552009-02-13T12:31:00.000-05:002009-02-13T12:31:00.000-05:00Roll - thanks for the comment/question.I am going ...Roll - thanks for the comment/question.<BR/><BR/>I am going to incorporate this discussion into a future post on the NL auction, but let me comment briefly.<BR/><BR/>Let's assume what you say is correct: Cantu is assured a starting job at either first or third. That leaves Gaby Sanchez and Dallas McPherson. When I price Gaby, I know he is going to fly by my price in a non-keeper league...great upside, but an unproven rookie. Even if he has the job, there are better bets. If Gaby fails, McPherson gets a job by default, so he does have "flier" value...he's somone I have to put a dollar or two on (at least to give him a maker for the reserve draft).<BR/><BR/>The dicier the position battle, the more I price tweak. In fact, you see it in the unsure closer battles all the time. It really works the same way on offense.<BR/><BR/>More to follow.Tozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02097212900980638912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-31446876806559915132009-02-13T10:12:00.000-05:002009-02-13T10:12:00.000-05:00In looking at players this time of year, how did y...In looking at players this time of year, how did you budget for the candidates at uncertain positions? For instance, the Marlins. We know Cantu will be at one of the corners. But who will be at the other? Sanchez or McPherson? Do you guess which one will grab the job, and bid accordingly, or keep bids low on both, in which instance the extra dollars flow to more establised players. It seems to me this leads to exhorbitantly high prices on the stars. We know it is good to err by a couple of dollars on the studs, but 10 or 15? In one sense bidding an extra 10 on player who turns out to be worth 2 isn't as bad as bidding 45 on a player who turns out to worth 35, because you aren't going to cut the high price player and free up the spot to attempt to makeup the shortfall through the free agent pool, like you will with the cheaper player.Roll2https://www.blogger.com/profile/12952296733212282162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-22378129152402467532009-02-13T08:35:00.000-05:002009-02-13T08:35:00.000-05:00There are really two parts to this analysis. Firs...There are really two parts to this analysis. <BR/><BR/>First, were the top tier pitchers at par? On my sheet (which is skewed some to a non-standard split), Hamels and Linceum were about at par, and Santana was a bit over par. I think these three are above and beyond the others.<BR/><BR/>Second, where did the second tier pitchers fall? Oswalt $26; Webb $38; Peavy $29; Haren $29.<BR/><BR/>How about the next group? Billingsley, Harden, Lowe, Cain, Wainwright, Volquez, and Gallardo all fell between $19-$24. Vazquez went for $20.<BR/><BR/>This group, in my opinion, is the significantly overpriced group. Pitchers fell in later for more "par" prices.<BR/><BR/>As a general thought, I think had I played my numbers straight on pitchers, I would have been better off.Tozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02097212900980638912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-23152104482190813802009-02-12T23:21:00.000-05:002009-02-12T23:21:00.000-05:00Well, if this shows anything, it's that even the b...Well, if this shows anything, it's that even the best plans sometime fall apart.<BR/><BR/>How far overvalued do you think the second-tier pitchers were? I was wondering if that would happen, just because there are so many Grade A starters in the NL.<BR/><BR/>I figure some people would pass on those elite guys, then realize those pitchers went for par value. Those owners would then freak out and start bidding up the second-tier pitchers. Do you think that's what happened?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com