tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post6590086578031727838..comments2023-10-31T06:25:28.512-04:00Comments on Roto Think Tank: More Fun and Adventures with ERA and FIPMike Gianellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04227146501538593197noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-26342991635106239512010-08-27T10:48:05.434-04:002010-08-27T10:48:05.434-04:00I believe the title of my next post will contain t...I believe the title of my next post will contain the following disclaimer: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results."<br /><br />Essentially, FIP and xFIP are a sabremetric attempt to quantify future results. Working much the same way as a market analyst would, the FIP/xFIP analyst looks at a variety of stats to come up with the long sought after "future performance" indicator.<br /><br />Forgetting for a moment whether FIP and xFIP are a flawed means of evaluating future performance, they are both certainly misapplied as evaluators of past performance. Using Trevor Cahill as an example, back in June, Trevor Cahill's FIP was likely in the high 4.00s (sorry I do not recall offhand, but this estimate is probably in the range of fairness). The reality is, however, that Trevor Cahill did not put up a high 4.00s ERA over the past two months. Instead, he put up a 3.02 in July and a .92 in August.<br /><br />As it applies to the Cy Young award, then, do we penalize Trevor Cahill because he "should" have had an ERA close to 5.00, or do we reward him for putting up a year to date ERA of 2.43? Do we leave Cahill out of the conversation because of a "weak" K/9 or an absurdly low BABIP? The answer is self-evident - regardless of what Cahill was "supposed" to do, he has done what he has done, and, frankly, done it better than just about anyone in the American League this year.<br /><br />As I examine these statistics more and more, I find myself overlooking the flaws in the statistics and instead focusing on the flaws in their application. The off-season months will give us a lot of time to examine these issues in more detail.Tozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02097212900980638912noreply@blogger.com