tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post6064266397175091123..comments2023-10-31T06:25:28.512-04:00Comments on Roto Think Tank: Potpourri: On Experts and Fantasy BaseballMike Gianellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04227146501538593197noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-56346043666104288822009-03-12T02:45:00.000-04:002009-03-12T02:45:00.000-04:00Mike. I wanted to post here about the CBSSports A...Mike. I wanted to post here about the CBSSports AL Auction since you have written a lot about it. I wanted to post my thoughts on a few of the issues as a member of the league (crucialsports.com)<BR/><BR/>1. My credentials<BR/><BR/>Am I an "expert"? I don't know how to answer that. I've been playing in exclusively AL leagues since 1991. I have written for many sites over the years providing advice on a variety of players (mostly focused on playing time and managerial tendencies). I take data generated from a lot of sources (BBHQ, BP, Hardball Times, FanGraphs, etc.) and try to integrate that with knowledge of what managers tend to do, who's available on the bench to replace that player, etc. I do this to make assessments based on playing time and performance...and go from there. Does that make me an expert? I don't know. However, I can promise you this: I know what I am doing.<BR/><BR/>2. My team<BR/><BR/>My strategy is always "you can't acquire stats if you don't get at bats" (you have to say that like Johnnie Cochran). Thus, I pay extra for guys who hit up in the lineup (re: more at bats) and have little chance of losing their jobs. In a 12-team league, this is a HUGE issue since the waiver pool is virtually empty of any hitters during the season. If you have a guy on your team who goes from starting to the bench (or the Minors), that's a big problem. In a 12-team league, you really want to limit your risk exposure.<BR/><BR/>How did I do this year? I banked a lot of power bats (Wells, Vlad, Konerko, M. Cabrera, Beltre) plus solid contributors (Jeter, Hill, Ellsbury, Betancourt, Overbay). Those are 10 players destined to get a lot of at bats (except for injuries...). The other four players are two catchers (both starters in Barajas and Navarro) and two guys I got that I didn't want. I nominated Thames for a $1, then went to the bathroom since I assumed he'd go for more. I was surprised he was on my team when I got back. Byrd was nominated as best available player by the AI when I could not find Morales quickly enough from the search box. <BR/><BR/>Since pitching is easier to find (even during the season), I won't ever spend much on pitching. I was price enforcing when I landed Carmona, but the rest of the guys were a mix of starters and closers-in-waiting. The starters are Davies, Hochevar, Porcello, Millwood and Padilla. Several of those guys are fungible with waiver pool guys (though I was happy to land Braden in the reserve draft) and I'll see how the rest of the spring works out before making a move. My closers-in-waiting are Lowe, Delcarmen and J. Lewis. I like all three of those guys, especially the last two, and I am happy to have them.<BR/><BR/>Overall, my offense will likely be near the top of the league, but my pitching is always suspect. However, I know how to deal with that as I've been using this approach for many years.<BR/><BR/>3. The Patton & Co team<BR/><BR/>I just don't see where this team will finish 20% ahead of the rest of the league. Too many things have to go right and there are several offensive players who can easily find themselves not in the lineup regularly for whatever reason (injury, farmed out, bench player, etc.): Betemit, Rolen, Branyan, Punto, Span, Sweeney, Buck). Certainly Matsui is a risk coming off surgery and Mauer is already hurt. <BR/><BR/>On the pitching front, there's much more to like with top tier arms in Lee, Beckett, Lackey and Santana (plus Rivera as a closer). However, those five players cost $108. Having four rotation aces is overkill with so much at bat uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball.<BR/><BR/>4. This league, in general<BR/><BR/>I was invited into this league two years ago and won it that first year...and finished 4th last year. I have played in several other "experts" leagues in the past, normally with a very competitive finish. This league is like most other leagues in that teams who are out of the race early are not sensitive to roster management. This makes for easier pickings than should be for free agents. I am often surprised at the players I can get in the free agent pool (normally on-the-brink minor leaguers). <BR/><BR/>At any rate, those are my comments. I like your site here and have read some of your analysis. However, I don't think this league (and this draft year, in particular) is really authentic. The AI we used to run the draft was beta and all of this happened prior to any exhibition games being played. I think this was almost an exhibition auction for a lot of owners. Certainly it got crazy near the end when no one had any money. That really isn't an authentic situation since I think several players went for much higher than they would normally go for (Markakis at $35? Chris Davis at $29? Choo at $21? Sizemore at $51 in a 12-team league?) just to name a few.<BR/><BR/>Good luck this year.<BR/><BR/>DonAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07868673228745050086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-11037233353066899082009-03-02T01:51:00.000-05:002009-03-02T01:51:00.000-05:00Since some of the readers here were asking about v...Since some of the readers here were asking about various strategies employed by Owners in the CBS AL Analyst League Auction in which Mike and I participated on 2/12 I have posted a response to Mike's 2/26 review of my team which details my strategy. Thanks for everyone's interest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-25588753241409470122009-03-02T00:16:00.000-05:002009-03-02T00:16:00.000-05:00Hi Mike, I havent posted here before mainly becaus...Hi Mike, I havent posted here before mainly because I somehow missed your blog until a few days ago. Rotoman never told me, haha. I have been doing rotisserie since the early 90s but there is always so much more to learn. I enjoy reading the posts at alex's site re players but I havent really found anything like your site. I wish you good luck with it and I totally I agree with you that the more shallow drafts and even roto leagues dont know what they are missing. BTW, I am also involved with the Rotoman Regs league, I mean I have a team there, as well as with Mike Fenger's league, just to give you a little background on myself. Good luck this year. One more thing, I have always found most or all of your postings at Alex's site as one of the ones I pay special attention to.Gypsy Soulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11311572399730547627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-10713981104080278492009-03-01T18:34:00.000-05:002009-03-01T18:34:00.000-05:00Well, I keep coming back here, so you must be doin...Well, I keep coming back here, so you must be doing something right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com