tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post107516188526649455..comments2023-10-31T06:25:28.512-04:00Comments on Roto Think Tank: Calculating Values with InflationMike Gianellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04227146501538593197noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-79729287734522527672009-03-13T01:56:00.000-04:002009-03-13T01:56:00.000-04:00Thank you for your help on this, however, it is st...Thank you for your help on this, however, it is still somewhat unclear to me as to how much to pay for a player when you take inflation into consideration. Mike has said he will usually stop before he reaches the full inflation bid price, but with a high rate of inflation there is consequently a large variance between the raw bid price and the full inflation bid price. So where in this gap do you choose to stop? Mike mentions in his post of March 10th that his "ideal freeze auction would see me turning $2 inflation profit per player." By this I assume he is saying he will bid to $2 below the inflation price and generally no more. Anyway, again thank you, and Mike as well, for all your help and I wish you good luck this season.Gypsy Soulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11311572399730547627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-12381203949627469072009-03-07T20:39:00.000-05:002009-03-07T20:39:00.000-05:00Toz, thanks, that's helpful.Toz, thanks, that's helpful.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-49654485817975701432009-03-06T13:55:00.000-05:002009-03-06T13:55:00.000-05:00Thanks for the comments Frank and Gypsy. I won't ...Thanks for the comments Frank and Gypsy. I won't speak for Mike, but I wanted to answer two specific points (one from each of you). Since Mike and I auction against each other in the AL, we're not telling any secrets out of school :)<BR/><BR/>I typically go through a two stage process in developing bids. Of course, raw bid price is an element of projections: what do you believe this player will do this year in his particular league and lineup. At this stage, however, the raw bid is subject to the "tweak"; preference, injury history, youth, etc. This will then set my raw bid. Mike may do this at part three of your analysis, Frank, but I do it here on the raw bid. I then calculate my inflation prices from there.<BR/><BR/>Gypsy, you raise an interesting question about overpaying for players. My best answer is this. The tweaking on players is done prior to the auction as part of the development of raw bids and inflation prices. So, age, productivity, personal preference, etc., has already been factored in to the price. Also recall that this is a numbers game. There are only $3,120 in a 12 team league ... it is a finite universe. Each calculation is made with that strict budget in mind, and the bid prices you have should add up to $3,120. You can't add or subtract money from the coffers...it is what it is (to borrow a hated euphamism). So if you overspend your bid limits somewhere, you need to subtract the money elsewhere. On top of that, you do not want to suck value out of your team by overpaying for players.<BR/><BR/>Hope these comments help.<BR/><BR/>TozTozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02097212900980638912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-91131968726225036802009-03-04T18:06:00.000-05:002009-03-04T18:06:00.000-05:00Thank you for helping me understand the inflation ...Thank you for helping me understand the inflation issue better. However, a few comments:<BR/>1. I have read opinions to the effect that it can be ok to overpay for the premium hitters because it can be considered like insurance and even though they dont return full value they do return a very large percent of the investment.<BR/>2.It is, of course, impossible really to exactly value players, so why be concerned if you overbid on players if it is just by an incremental amount? I think this is particularly true if they have upside or are fairly consistent in their returns.<BR/>3. I am just curious if you know how many dollars of profits you try to come out of the auction with in general, of course greatly effected by your keepers. Do you keep an ongoing total during the draft of your profits?<BR/><BR/>Thanks very much, Mike.Gypsy Soulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11311572399730547627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37316956.post-19789672836948043912009-03-04T07:09:00.000-05:002009-03-04T07:09:00.000-05:00So, if I understand correctly, in a keeper league ...So, if I understand correctly, in a keeper league auction, each player has three prices:<BR/><BR/>1. Raw bid price is the price you assign to a player based on your estimate of what he is likely to produce statistically in the coming season.<BR/><BR/>2. Inflation or par price is an objective number derived at by multiplying the raw bid price by your league's inflation rate.<BR/><BR/>3. The price you'll actually pay for a player depends on a variety of circumstances particular to your team and league.<BR/><BR/>This makes sense. I had been trying to ask whether the inflation or par price could be adjusted for subjective reasons. Based on what you've written, I'd now say that it cannot. It's simply a function of your league's inflation rate. The subjective piece comes in when setting the third price: the price you're willing to pay despite what par might be.<BR/><BR/>I suppose I had been combining prices 2 and 3 in my own mind when setting my bid limits. If I thought Player A was worth $20, and my league's inflation rate was 10%, then Player A's par price would be $22.<BR/><BR/>But if I knew that I wasn't going to bid past $20 for Player A, then I would adjust his inflation price (which was also my bid limit) down to $20 and reassign that extra $2 to another player.<BR/><BR/>Now I think I understand that by doing this, I set myself up to bid to "par" on each and every player. I run the risk of overspending early and not maximizing value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com