To my regular readers, welcome back to the 5th annual installment of my position-by-position, Rotisserie-style recap of the previous season. Feel free to skip ahead to the first chart below.
For my new readers, these charts are a look back at what happened last year. As you'll quickly find out, though, this isn't merely a gauzy amble down memory lane. This series uses last year's data to try and identify next year's trends.
The dollar values in the charts are my variation of Alex Patton's 5x5 pricing formulas for A.L.-only and N.L.-only leagues. One change I've made is that in addition to presenting Peter Kreutzer's (Rotoman) bids from the Patton software I've decided to show the expert league prices (from CBS, LABR and Tout Wars) that make up the average price I include in these charts. I've compared other expert prices next to Rotoman's in the past, but I suspect that most of my readers are more interested in the expert auction data than in expert pricing.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Catchers 2011
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | $8 | 25 | -18 | 31 | 22 | 23 | 25 | $23 | |
2 | $26 | 23 | 3 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 24 | $21 | |
3 | $17 | 18 | -1 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 18 | $6 | |
4 | $25 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 16 | 15 | $15 | |
5 | $9 | 16 | -8 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 13 | $11 | |
6 | $16 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 15 | $8 | |
7 | $7 | 14 | -7 | 19 | 12 | 12 | 9 | $12 | |
8 | $11 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | $11 | |
9 | $11 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 3 | $0 | |
10 | $10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | $0 | |
Average | $14 | $16 | -2 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 14 | $11 |
Sixteen dollars per catcher is exactly what the market paid in 2010 for the 10 most expensive catchers. However, the salary distribution last year was far different. The market pushed the prices on the top guys down a little and reallocated the money in the middle and at the bottom.
This isn't the beginning of a new trend but rather a return to the norm. 2010 was the aberration; 2008 and 2009 looked more like last year. As a rule, Rotisserie owners dislike paying big bucks for catchers. The reason, though, isn't because people are worried that catchers are injury prone or that they will play less than their counterparts on the diamond. Year after year, the most expensive catchers get raises.
A.L.-Only Catcher Salaries vs. Earnings
Year | Avg Sal | Prior Year $ | +/- | ||||
2009 | $11 | $10 | +1 | ||||
2010 | $16 | $14 | +2 | ||||
2011 | $16 | $11 | +5 |
The raises were larger on average last year because - as a rule - owners would rather speculate on young talent like Santana, Wieters, Arencibia, and Saltalamacchia and get burned then spend $15 on a steady performer like Pierzynski and get back a $10 return. Carlos Santana was young enough and had enough upside to earn $15-20 last year. Pierzynski didn't.
CBS leads the pricing charge here, outbidding the other two expert leagues and Rotoman on every player except for Napoli (LABR), Wieters (Tout Wars), and ties on Arencibia and Saltalamacchia. Returning readers are well aware that CBS is the most aggressive of the expert league bidders by far, but it's worth noting for newcomers that CBS is what's known as a Stage One Rotisserie league. Big bucks get spent early, leaving plenty of bargains in what's a super long end game.
I didn't pit Rotoman against a fellow expert this year, so his bid limits stand out even more in contrast to the realities of three expert markets. If CBS says to pounce, Rotoman's bids seem to say hang back. Generally speaking, this might not be a bad approach, as these catchers do lose money as a group. I would recommend bidding a little more on guys like Arencibia and Saltalamacchia who are starting and can put up $7-9 worth of stats even if they're not particularly good.
Top 10 A.L. Catchers 2011
Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | Victor Martinez | $26 | 23 | 3 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 24 | $21 |
2 | Mike Napoli | $25 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 16 | 15 | $15 |
3 | $20 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | $4 | |
4 | Carlos Santana | $17 | 18 | -1 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 18 | $6 |
5 | Matt Wieters | $16 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 15 | $8 |
6 | $13 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 8 | $7 | |
7 | A.J. Pierzynski | $11 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | $11 |
8 | $11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | $15 | |
9 | J.P. Arencibia | $11 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 3 | $0 |
10 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | $10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 | $0 |
Average | $16 | $12 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | $9 |
There's a lot of duplication here. Avila, Martin and Olivo are the only newcomers, replacing Posada, Suzuki and (sigh) Mauer. And Posada, Suzuki and Mauer weren't total zeros; you did get some stats.
For the second year in a row, then, bottom feeding on American League catchers was not likely to provide production. If you want stats from your catchers, you have to spend.
Of course, grizzled owners know this isn't the real question. Owners that buy $1 catchers push that money into more offense elsewhere. Is it better to push more money into other positions or should you make sure you buy stats at catcher?
In most leagues, you probably want to buy the stats and take the loss. Free agent talent is hardest to come by behind the plate, so if you don't get a good catcher at the auction, you probably won't have one all year. In leagues with dumping, you might actually want to save your money if you think you can dump into a better catcher later.
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